Congressional Republicans are gradually embracing the claim of Ukrainian interference in the 2016 election, concluding the allegation is the most politically expedient way to defend President Trump against impeachment.
Plenty of Republicans are skeptical, but a growing number are sidelining doubts and joining with Republicans who genuinely believe the claim about Ukraine. The converts tend to view allegations against Kyiv as an effective strategy for sowing public doubts about impeachment and influencing a Senate trial.
“It’s much easier to defend President Trump’s action on the merits if you can argue that there was a possibility that his request for an investigation was legitimate,” Michael Steel, a former House Republican leadership aide, said Monday.
The president is fending off allegations he used $400 million in United States military assistance to pressure Ukraine to investigate political rival Joe Biden, the former vice president vying for the Democratic nomination in 2020.
The aid was eventually released without the launch or promise of an investigation, and Trump has explained his actions as an attempt to secure a commitment from Zelensky to crack down on corruption and look into allegations the Ukrainians interfered in 2016 to boost Hillary Clinton. Republicans allege that Democratic operatives in the U.S. conspired with Ukrainians both inside and outside the government in Kyiv to uncover, or possibly manufacture, dirt on Trump during the campaign out of fear that as president he would favor Russia.
A January 2017 investigation by Politico found that Ukraine sought to help Clinton’s campaign and harm Trump’s, but that the effort was not as “concerted or centrally directed” as Russia’s attempt to aid Trump. Many Republicans, even some ardent Trump defenders, have previously been hesitant to treat the allegations against Ukraine as seriously as the charge of Russian interference, which was supported by special counsel Robert Mueller. Democrats dismiss the allegations of Ukrainian interference as “unfounded” or even a “conspiracy theory.”
Once a favorite assertion of a smaller collection of ardent Trump loyalists, rank-and-file Republicans on the House Intelligence Committee embraced the Ukraine narrative during public impeachment hearings last month in questioning hostile witnesses. Republicans in the Senate, typically cautious, also began lending credibility to the charges in media interviews.
But Republicans who believe Ukraine intervened against Trump argue the allegations paint a more accurate picture of what happened three years ago. With the House headed toward impeaching Trump by Christmas, Republicans who are convinced of Ukraine’s intervention in the 2016 race say that a full explanation of what happened, with supporting witnesses, would completely puncture the Democrats’ case for impeachment during a Senate trial.
“A Senate trial done properly, with about a dozen witnesses that Republicans didn’t get to call, is a disaster the Democrats — a total and complete disaster,” Rep. Devin Nunes, the top Republican on the House Intelligence Committee, told the Washington Examiner. In House impeachment hearings, the Democrats blocked several witnesses from testifying, witnesses Republicans wanted to hear from to bolster Trump’s defense.
The shift of skeptical Republicans toward a message that accommodates at least the possibility Kyiv inserted itself into the 2016 election is at least in part a tacit acknowledgment that the Democrats’ bid to drive Trump from office over charges of an abuse of power has solidified the president’s grip on Republican voters heading into the 2020 election.
The president’s job approval ratings with Republicans are sky high, and only 11.5% of GOP voters support impeachment, according to an average of polls on the matter compiled by FiveThirtyEight. As practical political matter, Republicans have accepted that their fate is tied to Trump’s.
“It’s not a comfort-level decision,” said a Republican operative, who requested anonymity in order to speak candidly. “It’s a sign that they understand that they are stuck with Trump until 2020, that his base votes, and it’s their only chance of survival.”
