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True Pandemic Toll in the U.S. Reaches 377,000

Deaths above normal are peaking now in 23 states.

They peaked in the summer in 14 states and Puerto Rico.

They peaked in the spring in 13 states and Washington, D.C.

Deaths in every state of the country are higher than they would be in a normal year, according to an analysis of estimates from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention.

The data show how the coronavirus pandemic, which is peaking in many states, is bringing with it unusual patterns of death, higher than the official totals of deaths that have been directly linked to the virus.

Deaths nationwide were 19 percent higher than normal from March 15 to Dec. 5. Altogether, the analysis shows that 377,000 more people than normal have died in the United States during that period, a number that may be an undercount since recent death statistics are still being updated.

Total U.S. Deaths Above Normal

Our analysis examines deaths from all causes — not just confirmed cases of coronavirus — beginning when the virus took hold. That allows comparisons that do not depend on the accuracy of cause-of-death reporting, and includes deaths related to disruptions caused by the pandemic as well as the virus itself. Epidemiologists refer to fatalities in the gap between the observed and normal numbers of deaths as “excess deaths.”

As coronavirus cases spread across the country, the geographic patterns of deaths above normal have followed.

Where deaths above normal are peaking now

Deaths above normal in these places peaked in October or later.

Illinois

March 15 – Dec. 5

Total excess deaths

19,200

Percent above normal

26%

Per 100,000 people

152

South Dakota

March 15 – Dec. 5

1,300

22%

152

North Dakota

March 15 – Dec. 5

1,100

22%

153

Indiana

March 15 – Dec. 5

9,300

20%

139

Arkansas

March 15 – Dec. 5

4,300

19%

145

Colorado

March 15 – Dec. 5

5,400

19%

94

Missouri

March 15 – Dec. 5

8,500

19%

140

Iowa

March 15 – Dec. 5

3,900

18%

125

Nebraska

March 15 – Dec. 5

2,100

18%

112

Montana

March 15 – Nov. 28

1,200

18%

118

New Mexico

March 15 – Dec. 5

2,300

18%

113

Ohio

March 15 – Nov. 28

13,700

16%

118

Wisconsin

March 15 – Dec. 5

6,300

16%

108

Tennessee

March 15 – Dec. 5

8,400

16%

124

Wyoming

March 15 – Nov. 28

500

16%

91

Idaho

March 15 – Nov. 28

1,500

15%

87

Kansas

March 15 – Dec. 5

2,800

15%

98

Minnesota

March 15 – Dec. 5

4,800

15%

86

Oklahoma

March 15 – Nov. 28

3,800

14%

96

Kentucky

March 15 – Nov. 28

4,500

13%

101

Utah

March 15 – Dec. 5

1,800

13%

59

Washington State

March 15 – Dec. 5

4,200

10%

55

Maine

March 15 – Dec. 5

500

5%

38

Excess deaths right now look worst in parts of the Midwest where coronavirus cases have been high. But in the summer, when the virus was more common in the South and Southwest, excess deaths were higher in those regions.

Where deaths above normal peaked in the summer

Deaths above normal in these places peaked from July to October.

Arizona

March 15 – Dec. 5

Total excess deaths

11,100

Percent above normal

26%

Per 100,000 people

154

Mississippi

March 15 – Dec. 5

5,700

25%

192

Texas

March 15 – Dec. 5

35,900

25%

124

South Carolina

March 15 – Nov. 21

7,400

22%

145

Georgia

March 15 – Nov. 21

12,400

21%

117

Alabama

March 15 – Dec. 5

7,300

19%

150

Florida

March 15 – Nov. 28

27,100

19%

126

California

March 15 – Nov. 28

32,500

18%

82

Nevada

March 15 – Dec. 5

3,200

18%

107

Puerto Rico

March 15 – Nov. 14

2,000

11%

62

North Carolina

March 15 – Aug. 15

4,200

11%

41

West Virginia

March 15 – Oct. 24

1,100

8%

63

Oregon

March 15 – Nov. 28

2,000

8%

47

Alaska

March 15 – Nov. 28

100

4%

20

Hawaii

March 15 – Dec. 5

200

3%

20

In the early months of the pandemic, deaths were most common in the Northeast, as states like New York and New Jersey saw huge surges.

Where deaths above normal peaked in the spring

Deaths above normal in these places peaked before July.

New York City

March 15 – Nov. 28

Total excess deaths

26,900

Percent above normal

72%

Per 100,000 people

319

New Jersey

March 15 – Dec. 5

19,700

38%

223

Washington, D.C.

March 15 – Nov. 21

1,200

30%

172

Connecticut

March 15 – Oct. 31

5,600

29%

159

Louisiana

March 15 – Nov. 28

8,800

28%

190

New York (excluding N.Y.C.)

March 15 – Dec. 5

16,100

23%

147

Michigan

March 15 – Dec. 5

15,400

22%

155

Maryland

March 15 – Dec. 5

7,800

22%

130

Massachusetts

March 15 – Dec. 5

8,600

21%

126

Delaware

March 15 – Nov. 21

1,200

20%

125

Pennsylvania

March 15 – Dec. 5

15,400

16%

120

Rhode Island

March 15 – Nov. 28

1,200

16%

113

Virginia

March 15 – Nov. 28

7,200

15%

85

Vermont

March 15 – Dec. 5

500

14%

89

New Hampshire

March 15 – Dec. 5

900

11%

71

Counting deaths takes time, and many states are weeks or months behind in reporting. These estimates from the C.D.C. are adjusted based on how mortality data has lagged in previous years. It will take several months before all these numbers are finalized.

From March 15 through Dec. 5, the most recent date with reliable statistics, estimated excess deaths were 34 percent higher than the official coronavirus fatality count. If this pattern held through Dec. 16, the total death toll would be about 410,000.

Public health researchers use such methods to measure the impact of catastrophic events when official measures of mortality are flawed.

Measuring excess deaths does not tell us precisely how each person died. Most of the excess deaths in this period are because of the coronavirus itself. But it is also possible that deaths from other causes have risen too, as hospitals in some hot spots have become overwhelmed and people have been scared to seek care for ailments that are typically survivable. Some causes of death may be declining, as people stay inside more, drive less and limit their contact with others.

Drug deaths have also risen steeply so far this year over last year, according to preliminary mortality data collected by The New York Times, though this increase had already started before the coronavirus pandemic and the resulting social disruptions.

Methodology

Total death numbers are estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which are based on death certificates counted by the centers and adjusted to account for typical lags in the reporting of deaths.

Our charts show weekly deaths above or below normal. They include weeks in which the C.D.C. estimates the data to be at least 90 percent complete or estimated deaths are above expected death numbers. Because states vary somewhat in their speed in reporting deaths to the federal government, these state charts show death trends for slightly different time periods. We have not included weeks in which reported deaths were less than 50 percent of the C.D.C. estimate.

Expected deaths were calculated with a simple model based on the weekly number of all-cause deaths from 2017 to 2019 released by the C.D.C., adjusted to account for trends, like population changes, over time.

Excess death numbers are rounded.