True Pandemic Toll in the U.S. Reaches 377,000
By Josh Katz, Denise Lu and Margot Sanger-Katz
Deaths above normal are peaking now in 23 states.
They peaked in the summer in 14 states and Puerto Rico.
They peaked in the spring in 13 states and Washington, D.C.
Deaths in every state of the country are higher than they would be in a normal year, according to an analysis of estimates from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention.
The data show how the coronavirus pandemic, which is peaking in many states, is bringing with it unusual patterns of death, higher than the official totals of deaths that have been directly linked to the virus.
Deaths nationwide were 19 percent higher than normal from March 15 to Dec. 5. Altogether, the analysis shows that 377,000 more people than normal have died in the United States during that period, a number that may be an undercount since recent death statistics are still being updated.
Total U.S. Deaths Above Normal
Our analysis examines deaths from all causes — not just confirmed cases of coronavirus — beginning when the virus took hold. That allows comparisons that do not depend on the accuracy of cause-of-death reporting, and includes deaths related to disruptions caused by the pandemic as well as the virus itself. Epidemiologists refer to fatalities in the gap between the observed and normal numbers of deaths as “excess deaths.”
As coronavirus cases spread across the country, the geographic patterns of deaths above normal have followed.
Where deaths above normal are peaking now
Deaths above normal in these places peaked in October or later.
Illinois
March 15 – Dec. 5
Total excess deaths
19,200
Percent above normal
26%
Per 100,000 people
152
South Dakota
March 15 – Dec. 5
1,300
22%
152
North Dakota
March 15 – Dec. 5
1,100
22%
153
Indiana
March 15 – Dec. 5
9,300
20%
139
Arkansas
March 15 – Dec. 5
4,300
19%
145
Colorado
March 15 – Dec. 5
5,400
19%
94
Missouri
March 15 – Dec. 5
8,500
19%
140
Iowa
March 15 – Dec. 5
3,900
18%
125
Nebraska
March 15 – Dec. 5
2,100
18%
112
Montana
March 15 – Nov. 28
1,200
18%
118
New Mexico
March 15 – Dec. 5
2,300
18%
113
Ohio
March 15 – Nov. 28
13,700
16%
118
Wisconsin
March 15 – Dec. 5
6,300
16%
108
Tennessee
March 15 – Dec. 5
8,400
16%
124
Wyoming
March 15 – Nov. 28
500
16%
91
Idaho
March 15 – Nov. 28
1,500
15%
87
Kansas
March 15 – Dec. 5
2,800
15%
98
Minnesota
March 15 – Dec. 5
4,800
15%
86
Oklahoma
March 15 – Nov. 28
3,800
14%
96
Kentucky
March 15 – Nov. 28
4,500
13%
101
Utah
March 15 – Dec. 5
1,800
13%
59
Washington State
March 15 – Dec. 5
4,200
10%
55
Maine
March 15 – Dec. 5
500
5%
38
Excess deaths right now look worst in parts of the Midwest where coronavirus cases have been high. But in the summer, when the virus was more common in the South and Southwest, excess deaths were higher in those regions.
Where deaths above normal peaked in the summer
Deaths above normal in these places peaked from July to October.
Arizona
March 15 – Dec. 5
Total excess deaths
11,100
Percent above normal
26%
Per 100,000 people
154
Mississippi
March 15 – Dec. 5
5,700
25%
192
Texas
March 15 – Dec. 5
35,900
25%
124
South Carolina
March 15 – Nov. 21
7,400
22%
145
Georgia
March 15 – Nov. 21
12,400
21%
117
Alabama
March 15 – Dec. 5
7,300
19%
150
Florida
March 15 – Nov. 28
27,100
19%
126
California
March 15 – Nov. 28
32,500
18%
82
Nevada
March 15 – Dec. 5
3,200
18%
107
Puerto Rico
March 15 – Nov. 14
2,000
11%
62
North Carolina
March 15 – Aug. 15
4,200
11%
41
West Virginia
March 15 – Oct. 24
1,100
8%
63
Oregon
March 15 – Nov. 28
2,000
8%
47
Alaska
March 15 – Nov. 28
100
4%
20
Hawaii
March 15 – Dec. 5
200
3%
20
In the early months of the pandemic, deaths were most common in the Northeast, as states like New York and New Jersey saw huge surges.
Where deaths above normal peaked in the spring
Deaths above normal in these places peaked before July.
New York City
March 15 – Nov. 28
Total excess deaths
26,900
Percent above normal
72%
Per 100,000 people
319
New Jersey
March 15 – Dec. 5
19,700
38%
223
Washington, D.C.
March 15 – Nov. 21
1,200
30%
172
Connecticut
March 15 – Oct. 31
5,600
29%
159
Louisiana
March 15 – Nov. 28
8,800
28%
190
New York (excluding N.Y.C.)
March 15 – Dec. 5
16,100
23%
147
Michigan
March 15 – Dec. 5
15,400
22%
155
Maryland
March 15 – Dec. 5
7,800
22%
130
Massachusetts
March 15 – Dec. 5
8,600
21%
126
Delaware
March 15 – Nov. 21
1,200
20%
125
Pennsylvania
March 15 – Dec. 5
15,400
16%
120
Rhode Island
March 15 – Nov. 28
1,200
16%
113
Virginia
March 15 – Nov. 28
7,200
15%
85
Vermont
March 15 – Dec. 5
500
14%
89
New Hampshire
March 15 – Dec. 5
900
11%
71
Counting deaths takes time, and many states are weeks or months behind in reporting. These estimates from the C.D.C. are adjusted based on how mortality data has lagged in previous years. It will take several months before all these numbers are finalized.
From March 15 through Dec. 5, the most recent date with reliable statistics, estimated excess deaths were 34 percent higher than the official coronavirus fatality count. If this pattern held through Dec. 16, the total death toll would be about 410,000.
Public health researchers use such methods to measure the impact of catastrophic events when official measures of mortality are flawed.
Measuring excess deaths does not tell us precisely how each person died. Most of the excess deaths in this period are because of the coronavirus itself. But it is also possible that deaths from other causes have risen too, as hospitals in some hot spots have become overwhelmed and people have been scared to seek care for ailments that are typically survivable. Some causes of death may be declining, as people stay inside more, drive less and limit their contact with others.
Drug deaths have also risen steeply so far this year over last year, according to preliminary mortality data collected by The New York Times, though this increase had already started before the coronavirus pandemic and the resulting social disruptions.
Methodology
Total death numbers are estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which are based on death certificates counted by the centers and adjusted to account for typical lags in the reporting of deaths.
Our charts show weekly deaths above or below normal. They include weeks in which the C.D.C. estimates the data to be at least 90 percent complete or estimated deaths are above expected death numbers. Because states vary somewhat in their speed in reporting deaths to the federal government, these state charts show death trends for slightly different time periods. We have not included weeks in which reported deaths were less than 50 percent of the C.D.C. estimate.
Expected deaths were calculated with a simple model based on the weekly number of all-cause deaths from 2017 to 2019 released by the C.D.C., adjusted to account for trends, like population changes, over time.
Excess death numbers are rounded.
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