New Marquette Law School Poll finds inflation fears up, pandemic fears down; marijuana legalization up, optimism about Wisconsin down; primary candidates not yet well known

March 2, 2022


Please note: Complete Poll results and methodology information can be found online at law.marquette.edu/poll

MILWAUKEE — With just more than five months until Wisconsin’s Aug. 9 primary election, a new Marquette Law School Poll survey of state voters finds that about half of both Republican and Democratic voters say they don’t know whom they support in the races for the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate and the Republican nomination for governor.

Small percentages of voters have opinions about any of the candidates with two exceptions. Even in the case of those two candidates, no more than half of voters have an opinion, favorable or unfavorable.

The poll finds 51% of registered voters saying they don’t know whom they will support in the Republican primary for governor or the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate. Forty-six percent say they support one of the current candidates, with the remainder saying they won’t vote in a primary or will vote for someone else or declining to say.

It is not unusual to see half of registered voters undecided with more than five months to go before the primary, but the high percentage of undecided is a vivid reminder that the primaries are not uppermost in voters’ minds at this point. Among those who say they are “very enthusiastic” about voting this year, 53% have a primary-vote choice, but 43% say they don’t know whom they will support. Among those less enthusiastic about voting, 35% have a chosen candidate and 63% don’t know whom they will support.

This poll interviewed 802 registered Wisconsin voters by landline or cell phone Feb. 22-27, 2022. The margin of error is +/-3.8 percentage points for the full sample. Some items were asked of half the sample. Primary-vote choices have a sample size of 363 for the Republican primary and 354 for the Democratic primary, with margins of error of +/-5.8 and +/-5.7 for the Republican and Democratic primaries respectively. Republican primary voters include Republicans and independents who lean Republican plus independents who do not lean to either party but who say they will vote in the Republican primary; similarly for “Democratic primary voters.”

Republican and Democratic primary voters are about equally unsure of their primary preferences. In the Republican gubernatorial primary, 54% are unsure of their choice, and 48% of Democratic voters unsure of their U.S. Senate primary vote.

The candidates are not yet familiar to most voters. Table 1 shows the percentage of voters who say they haven’t heard enough or can’t give a favorable or unfavorable opinion with respect to each Republican primary candidate. Rebecca Kleefisch is the best known, although half of voters are unable to say if they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of her. Some 80% lack an opinion of Kevin Nicholson, and 86% are unable to rate Tim Ramthun. The candidates are only a little better known among Republicans and independents who say they will vote in the Republican primary, as shown in Table 2.

Table 1: Name recognition and favorability of Republican candidates, among all registered voters

Name

Haven’t heard or don’t know

Favorable

Unfavorable

Rebecca Kleefisch

50

23

26

Kevin Nicholson

80

10

9

Tim Ramthun

86

4

9

Table 2: Name recognition and favorability of Republican candidates, among Republicans and independents voting in the Republican primary

Name

 

Haven’t heard or don’t know

Favorable

Unfavorable

Rebecca Kleefisch

 

50

39

10

Kevin Nicholson

 

73

18

8

Tim Ramthun

 

84

5

10

Kleefisch and Nicholson have run for political office previously and were better known during those campaigns. Table 3 shows Kleefisch’s favorability in Marquette Law School Poll surveys since 2012, and Table 4 shows Nicholson’s ratings during his 2018 primary campaign for U.S. Senate.

Table 3: Trend in Kleefisch name recognition and favorability, among all registered voters

Poll dates

Haven’t heard or don’t know

Favorable

Unfavorable

May 9-12, 2012

44

25

31

May 23-26, 2012

36

30

33

Oct. 9-12, 2014

45

29

25

Sept. 24-28, 2015

49

21

29

Oct. 3-7, 2018

42

32

26

Oct. 24-28, 2018

40

32

27

Feb. 22-27, 2022

50

23

26

Table 4: Trend in Nicholson name recognition and favorability, among all registered voters

Poll dates

Haven’t heard or don’t know

Favorable

Unfavorable

Feb. 25-3/1, 2018

85

7

7

June 13-17, 2018

69

18

13

July 11-15, 2018

69

17

14

Feb. 22-27, 2022

80

10

9

Among Democratic primary candidates, Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes is the best known, followed by Alex Lasry, although both are unfamiliar to more than 60% of registered voters, as shown in Table 5. Table 6 shows familiarity and favorability among Democrats and independents who say they will vote in the Democratic primary.

Table 5: Name recognition and favorability of Democratic candidates, among all registered voters

Name

Haven’t heard or don’t know

Favorable

Unfavorable

Mandela Barnes

62

22

14

Alex Lasry

73

16

10

Tom Nelson

85

7

8

Sarah Godlewski

88

5

6

Chantia Lewis

90

4

5

Darrell Williams

93

3

3

Adam Murphy

93

3

3

Gillian Battino*

93

3

3

Kou Lee

93

3

3

Jeff Rumbaugh

94

3

3

Steven Olikara

94

2

3

Peter Peckarsky

94

1

5

* Note: Battino dropped out of the senate primary after the poll began.

 

Table 6: Name recognition and favorability of Democratic candidates, among Democrats and independents voting in the Democratic primary

Name

Haven’t heard or don’t know

Favorable

Unfavorable

Mandela Barnes

53

43

4

Alex Lasry

65

29

6

Tom Nelson

81

11

7

Sarah Godlewski

84

10

6

Chantia Lewis

89

7

3

Kou Lee

92

5

2

Peter Peckarsky

93

2

4

Darrell Williams

94

4

2

Jeff Rumbaugh

94

3

3

Steven Olikara

94

3

2

Gillian Battino*

95

4

2

Adam Murphy

95

3

2

* Note: Battino dropped out of the senate primary after the poll began.

Barnes’ familiarity and favorability have been measured in four Marquette polls since 2018, with the trend shown in Table 7.

Table 7: Trend in Barnes’ name recognition and favorability, among all registered voters

Poll dates

Haven’t heard or don’t know

Favorable

Unfavorable

Oct. 3-7, 2018

76

14

9

Oct. 24-28, 2018

78

13

8

Jan. 16-20, 2019

76

16

7

Feb. 22-27, 2022

62

22

14

Primary vote choice

The best-known candidates are leading their respective primaries at this early stage of the campaign. Among Republicans and independents who say they will vote in the Republican primary, Rebecca Kleefisch is the choice of 30%, Kevin Nicholson is preferred by 8%, Tim Ramthun is supported by 5%, and 54% say they don’t know whom they will vote for. Table 8 shows all response categories.

Table 8: Vote choice in Republican gubernatorial primary, among Republicans and independents who say they will vote in the Republican primary

Response

Percent

Rebecca Kleefisch

30

Kevin Nicholson

8

Tim Ramthun

5

Someone else

1

Will not vote in Republican primary

1

Don’t know

54

Refused

2

In the Democratic U.S. Senate primary, Mandela Barnes is supported by 23%, Alex Lasry is supported by 13%, Tom Nelson is the choice of 5%, and Sarah Godlewski is preferred by 3%. The full set of candidate preferences is shown in Table 9.

Table 9: Vote choice in Democratic gubernatorial primary, among Democrats and independents who say they will vote in the Democratic primary, by percentage (*=less than .5%)

Response

Percent

Mandela Barnes

23

Alex Lasry

13

Tom Nelson

5

Sarah Godlewski

3

Chantia Lewis

2

Adam Murphy

2

Gillian Battino**

1

Peter Pecarsky

*

Darrell Williams

*

Kou Lee

0

Steven Olikara

0

Jeff Rumbaugh

0

Won’t vote in this primary

3

Don’t know

48

** Note: Battino dropped out of the senate primary after the poll began.

Approval ratings

Forty-three percent of voters approve of the job President Joe Biden is doing, 52% disapprove, and 3% say they don’t know. The trend in Biden’s approval is shown in Table 10.

Table 10: Biden approval trend, August 2021-February 2022

Poll dates

Approve

Disapprove

Don’t know

Refused

Aug. 3-8, 2021

49

46

4

0

Oct. 26-31, 2021

43

53

4

1

Feb. 22-27, 2022

43

52

3

2

Gov. Tony Evers’ job approval stands at 50%, while 41% disapprove. When last measured in October 2021, 45% approved and 46% disapproved. The trend in Evers’ job approval is shown in Table 11.

Table 11: Evers approval trend, January 2019-February 2022

Poll dates

Approve

Disapprove

Don’t know

Refused

Jan. 16-20, 2019

39

22

38

1

April 3-7, 2019

47

37

15

0

Aug. 25-29, 2019

54

34

10

1

Oct. 13-17, 2019

52

34

13

1

Nov. 13-17, 2019

47

42

10

1

Dec. 3-8, 2019

50

38

11

1

Jan. 8-12, 2020

51

40

9

0

Feb. 19-23, 2020

51

38

10

1

March 24-29, 2020

65

29

6

1

May 3-7, 2020

59

33

7

1

June 14-18, 2020

54

38

6

1

Aug. 4-9, 2020

57

37

6

0

Aug. 30-9/3, 2020

51

43

5

2

Sept. 30-Oct. 4, 2020

52

42

5

1

Oct. 21-25, 2020

50

43

7

0

Aug. 3-8, 2021

50

43

7

0

Oct. 26-31, 2021

45

46

8

1

Feb. 22-27, 2022

50

41

8

1

The Wisconsin legislature has a job approval rate of 37%, while 46% disapprove and 16% say they don’t know. The trend in approval of the legislature is shown in Table 12.

Table 12: Approval of the Wisconsin legislature trend, January 2019-February 2022

Poll dates

Approve

Disapprove

Don’t know

Refused

Jan. 16-20, 2019

52

31

16

1

April 3-7, 2019

50

38

11

1

Aug. 25-29, 2019

52

38

8

1

Nov. 13-17, 2019

48

39

13

0

Feb. 19-23, 2020

46

40

13

1

May 3-7, 2020

46

40

13

1

Oct. 21-25, 2020

36

50

13

1

Aug. 3-8, 2021

39

48

13

1

Oct. 26-31, 2021

38

48

14

1

Feb. 22-27, 2022

37

46

16

2

Favorability

Sen. Ron Johnson is viewed favorably by 33% of voters and unfavorably by 45%, with 21% saying they haven’t heard enough or don’t know. The trend in favorability for Johnson since 2019 is shown in Table 13.

Table 13: Johnson favorability trend, January 2019-February 2022

Poll dates

Favorable

Unfavorable

Haven’t heard enough

Don’t know

Refused

Jan. 16-20/19

44

28

23

5

0

April 3-7/19

40

32

24

5

0

Aug. 25-29, 2019

40

29

25

6

0

Oct. 13-17, 2019

40

29

24

6

0

Nov. 13-17, 2019

39

29

24

7

0

Dec. 3-8, 2019

36

34

26

4

1

Jan. 8-12, 2020

39

29

28

3

0

Feb. 19-23, 2020

37

34

24

5

1

March 24-29, 2020

35

32

29

4

0

May 3-7, 2020

38

34

23

5

1

June 14-18, 2020

35

32

29

3

0

Aug. 4-9, 2020

33

35

27

4

0

Aug. 30-Sept. 3, 2020

32

36

28

5

0

Sept. 30-Oct. 4, 2020

35

31

27

7

0

Oct. 21-25, 2020

38

36

23

3

1

Aug. 3-8, 2021

35

42

20

3

0

Oct. 26-31, 2021

36

42

18

4

0

Feb. 22-27, 2022

33

45

17

4

1

Sen. Tammy Baldwin is rated favorably by 42% of voters and unfavorably by 36%, with 21% lacking an opinion of her. The trend in favorability to Baldwin since 2019 is shown in Table 14.

Table 14: Baldwin favorability trend, January 2019-February 2022

Poll dates

Favorable

Unfavorable

Haven’t heard enough

Don’t know

Refused

Jan. 16-20, 2019

45

41

11

3

0

April 3-7, 2019

44

43

10

3

0

Aug. 25-29, 2019

44

40

13

3

0

Oct. 13-17, 2019

46

39

11

3

0

Nov. 13-17, 2019

39

43

12

5

1

Dec. 3-8, 2019

42

39

14

3

1

Jan. 8-12, 2020

44

40

13

2

0

Feb. 19-23, 2020

43

40

13

3

1

March 24-29, 2020

40

39

16

4

0

May 3-7, 2020

45

37

14

3

1

June 14-18, 2020

40

38

19

3

0

Aug. 4-9, 2020

43

36

17

3

0

Aug. 30-Sept. 3, 2020

42

35

19

3

1

Sept. 30-Oct. 4, 2020

41

35

20

3

0

Oct. 21-25, 2020

44

36

15

4

0

Aug. 3-8, 2021

40

38

19

3

0

Oct. 26-31, 2021

38

39

19

3

0

Feb. 22-27, 2022

42

36

18

3

1

Assembly Speaker Robin Vos is not well-known statewide, despite his position and tenure as a legislative leader. This is in part a reflection of the fact that each member of the 99-seat Assembly represents just over 1% of the state population and is seldom well-known outside his or her district. Overall, 13% of Wisconsin voters have a favorable view of Vos, 28% have an unfavorable opinion, and 59% say they haven’t heard enough or don’t know. The trend in favorability to Vos is shown in Table 15.

Table 15: Vos favorability trend, January 2019-February 2022

Poll dates

Favorable

Unfavorable

Haven’t heard enough

Don’t know

Refused

Jan. 16-20, 2019

13

17

59

11

0

April 3-7, 2019

14

21

56

10

0

Aug. 25-29, 2019

15

20

52

13

0

Feb. 22-27, 2022

13

28

50

9

1

Unfavorability to Vos among Republicans and independents has increased a bit since 2019. The trends by party are shown in Table 16.

Table 16: Vos favorability by party trend, January 2019-February 2022

Party ID

Poll dates

Favorable

Unfavorable

Haven’t heard enough

Don’t know

Refused

Republican

Jan. 16-20, 2019

21

6

62

11

0

Republican

April 3-7, 2019

22

6

60

11

0

Republican

Aug. 25-29, 2019

26

7

53

14

0

Republican

Feb. 22-27, 2022

21

16

56

7

1

Independent

Jan. 16-20, 2019

11

11

61

17

0

Independent

April 3-7, 2019

11

18

56

13

2

Independent

Aug. 25-29, 2019

6

20

65

9

0

Independent

Feb. 22-27, 2022

4

22

55

15

3

Democrat

Jan. 16-20, 2019

4

30

56

9

0

Democrat

April 3-7, 2019

5

37

51

7

0

Democrat

Aug. 25-29, 2019

5

32

50

12

0

Democrat

Feb. 22-27, 2022

8

41

42

8

1

Favorability to former President Donald Trump is at 36%, with an unfavorable opinion at 57% and 5% not expressing an opinion. Trump’s favorability trend is shown in Table 17.

Table 17: Trump favorability trend, January 2019-February 2022

Poll dates

Favorable

Unfavorable

Haven’t heard enough

Don’t know

Refused

Jan. 16-20, 2019

42

53

2

3

0

April 3-7, 2019

45

51

1

2

1

Aug. 25-29, 2019

42

53

1

3

1

Oct. 13-17, 2019

43

52

1

3

1

Nov. 13-17, 2019

46

50

2

1

1

Dec. 3-8, 2019

45

50

2

2

2

Jan. 8-12, 2020

46

51

0

1

1

Feb. 19-23, 2020

45

50

3

2

0

March 24-29, 2020

45

50

2

3

0

May 3-7, 2020

44

51

2

2

1

June 14-18, 2020

42

54

2

2

1

Aug. 4-9, 2020

42

55

2

1

0

Aug. 30-Sept. 3, 2020

42

54

2

1

1

Sept. 30-Oct. 4, 2020

42

53

2

2

0

Oct. 21-25, 2020

44

54

1

1

1

Aug. 3-8, 2021

38

55

3

4

1

Oct. 26-31, 2021

38

57

2

3

0

Feb. 22-27, 2022

36

57

2

3

2

Direction of the state

Thirty-nine percent of voters say the state of Wisconsin is headed in the right direction, while 53% say it is on the wrong track. In October 2021, 41% said it was moving in the right direction and 51% said it was on the wrong track. Negative views rose sharply in 2021 and have remained little changed. The trend in this opinion is shown in Table 18.

Table 18: Right direction or wrong track trend, January 2019-February 2022

Poll dates

Right direction

Wrong track

Don’t know

Refused

Jan. 16-20, 2019

57

33

10

0

April 3-7, 2019

52

40

8

0

Aug. 25-29, 2019

55

37

8

0

Oct. 13-17, 2019

53

39

7

1

Jan. 8-12, 2020

46

47

6

1

Feb. 19-23, 2020

52

39

8

0

Mar. 24-29, 2020

61

30

9

1

Aug. 3-8, 2021

39

52

9

0

Oct. 26-31, 2021

41

51

7

1

Feb. 22-27, 2022

39

53

8

1

Issue concerns

There is a high level of concern over inflation, with 68% saying they are very concerned and 28% saying they are somewhat concerned. Only 4% are not too concerned or not at all concerned about inflation. Worries about inflation rose from August to October 2021, and are up slightly in February 2022, as shown in Table 19.

Table 19: Concern over inflation trend, August 2021-February 2022

Poll dates

Very concerned

Somewhat concerned

Not too concerned

Not at all concerned

Don’t know

Refused

Aug. 3-8, 2021

49

35

11

3

0

0

Oct. 26-31, 2021

64

28

6

1

0

0

Feb. 22-27, 2022

68

28

3

1

0

0

Thirty-one percent said they are very concerned about unemployment, with 35% somewhat concerned, 20% not too concerned, and 13% not at all concerned. This question was not asked earlier. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Wisconsin’s unemployment rate was 2.8% in December 2021, the most recent available estimate before this survey.

Concern over illegal immigration has fluctuated but is currently about the same as in August 2021. The full trend is shown in Table 20.

Table 20: Concern over illegal immigration trend, August 2021-February 2022

Poll dates

Very concerned

Somewhat concerned

Not too concerned

Not at all concerned

Don’t know

Refused

Aug. 3-8, 2021

37

24

21

18

0

0

Oct. 26-31, 2021

43

25

19

12

1

0

Feb. 22-27, 2022

36

24

19

20

1

0

Concern over the coronavirus “here in Wisconsin” was lower than for the economic issues, with 27% saying they were very concerned, 34% somewhat concerned, 21% not too concerned, and 18% not at all concerned.

Concern about the coronavirus pandemic was asked concerning “the United States” rather than “here in Wisconsin” in earlier surveys. That previous trend is shown in Table 21.

Table 21: Concern over coronavirus in United States trend, March 2020-October 2021

Poll dates

Very concerned

Somewhat concerned

Not very concerned

Not concerned at all

Don’t know

Refused

Mar. 24-29, 2020

68

25

5

2

0

0

May 3-7, 2020

50

31

12

7

0

0

Oct. 26-31, 2021

40

34

14

11

1

0

The decision to close businesses and schools in 2020 due to the coronavirus is seen as an appropriate response by 61% but as an overreaction by 35%. The initial reaction was overwhelming support, which has declined over time, as shown in Table 22.

Table 22: View of closing schools and businesses due to coronavirus trend, March 2020-February 2022

Poll dates

Appropriate response

Overreaction

Don’t know

Refused

Mar. 24-29, 2020

86

10

3

0

May 3-7, 2020

69

26

4

1

June 14-18, 2020

72

25

3

0

Oct. 21-25, 2020

68

26

5

0

Aug. 3-8, 2021

62

35

2

1

Feb. 22-27, 2022

61

35

3

0

Fifty-three percent say they trust Evers as a source of information about the virus either “a great deal” or “a fair amount,” while 43% say they trust him not much or not at all. Thirty-one percent trust Johnson “a great deal” or “a fair amount” for coronavirus information, with 61% saying they trust him “not much” or “not at all.” The full set of response options for October 2021 and February 2022 is shown in Table 23 for Evers and Table 24 for Johnson.

Table 23: Trust Evers for coronavirus information trend, October 2021-February 2022

Poll dates

A great deal

A fair amount

Not much

Not at all

Don’t Know

Refused

Oct. 26-31, 2021

24

29

18

27

3

0

Feb. 22-27, 2022

26

27

17

26

4

1

 

Table 24: Trust Johnson for coronavirus information trend, October 2021-February 2022

Poll dates

A great deal

A fair amount

Not much

Not at all

Don’t Know

Refused

Oct. 26-31, 2021

13

26

16

38

7

0

Feb. 22-27, 2022

13

18

17

44

8

0

Education issues

The question of who should have the biggest role in determining public school curriculum produces varied answers, with 35% saying parents, 33% saying teachers, 13% saying school boards, and 9% saying superintendents and principals. Five percent say state legislators should have the major role in curriculum.

On this issue, there is a divide along party lines, with Republicans and independents giving parents the larger role and Democrats assigning it to teachers, as shown in Table 25.

Table 25: Who should play biggest role in school curriculum, by party, February 2022

Party ID

Teachers

School Boards

Parents

Superintendents and principals

State legislators

Don’t know

Refused

Republican

17

11

56

5

6

4

0

Independent

29

7

43

8

4

8

1

Democrat

53

16

9

14

5

4

0

A policy of “allowing all students statewide to use publicly funded vouchers to attend private or religious schools” is supported by 59% and opposed by 37%. When last asked in August 2020, the question was worded as to whether a respondent agreed or disagreed with a policy to “provide tax-funded vouchers to be used for private or religious schools.” At that time, 41% agreed with providing vouchers, and 49% disagreed with the policy.

A majority of respondents, 55%, say public schools are in worse shape than a few years ago, while 29% say they are in about the same shape, and 9% say they are better now. In August 2018, 44% said schools had gotten worse, 34% said they were about the same, and 15% said schools had gotten better.

Asked their opinion of the standards for education in Wisconsin schools, 47% of voters say the standards are lower than they should be, 31% say they are about where they should be, and 12% say they are higher than they should be. This is little changed from January 2014, when 47% said standards were too low, 32% said they were where they should be, and 15% said standards were too high.

Confidence in the 2020 election

Among all registered voters, 67% are very or somewhat confident the votes were accurately cast and counted in the 2020 election, while 31% are not too or not at all confident in the election accuracy. There are large partisan divisions shown in Table 26, but also some differences between Republicans and independents who lean Republican.

Table 26: Confidence in the accuracy of the 2020 election by party, February 2022

Party ID

Confident

Not confident

DK/Ref

Republican

38

61

2

Lean Republican

49

51

0

Independent

55

35

10

Lean Democrat

94

4

2

Democrat

96

3

1

There has been a decline in skepticism among Republicans since August 2021, while independents who lean Republican have remained evenly split. Independents who do not lean to a party became more skeptical of the election between August and October and then changed little in February. Democrats and independents who lean Democratic are overwhelmingly confident in the election accuracy. Table 27 shows these trends.

Table 27: Confidence in the accuracy of the 2020 election, by party trend, August 2021-February 2022

Party ID

Poll dates

Confident

Not confident

DK/Ref

Republican

Aug. 3-8, 2021

29

70

1

Republican

Oct. 26-31, 2021

33

64

4

Republican

Feb. 22-27, 2022

38

61

2

Lean Republican

Aug. 3-8, 2021

49

49

2

Lean Republican

Oct. 26-31, 2021

45

51

3

Lean Republican

Feb. 22-27, 2022

49

51

0

Independent

Aug. 3-8, 2021

79

15

6

Independent

Oct. 26-31, 2021

56

38

6

Independent

Feb. 22-27, 2022

55

35

10

Lean Democrat

Aug. 3-8, 2021

96

4

0

Lean Democrat

Oct. 26-31, 2021

94

5

0

Lean Democrat

Feb. 22-27, 2022

94

4

2

Democrat

Aug. 3-8, 2021

97

3

0

Democrat

Oct. 26-31, 2021

99

1

0

Democrat

Feb. 22-27, 2022

96

3

1

Marijuana legalization

Support for legalization of marijuana has grown since the question was first asked in 2013, with 61% in favor of legalization and 31% opposed now. The trend is shown in Table 28.

Table 28: Legalization of marijuana trend, October 2013-February 2022

Poll dates

Yes, legal

No, illegal

Don’t Know

Refused

Oct. 21-24, 2013

50

45

5

1

Mar. 20-23, 2014

42

52

6

0

Sept. 11-14, 2014

46

51

2

0

Jan. 16-20, 2019

59

35

7

0

April 3-7, 2019

59

36

4

1

Feb. 22-27, 2022

61

31

7

0

Support for legalization of marijuana has grown in each partisan group since 2013, with a slim majority of Republicans now supporting legalization, as shown in Table 29.

Table 29: Legalization of marijuana, by party identification trend, October 2013-February 2022

Party ID

Poll dates

Yes, legal

No, illegal

Don’t Know

Refused

Republican

Oct. 21-24, 2013

43

51

5

1

Republican

Mar. 20-23, 2014

29

66

5

0

Republican

Sept. 11-14, 2014

32

65

2

0

Republican

Jan. 16-20, 2019

42

52

5

0

Republican

April 3-7, 2019

41

56

3

0

Republican

Feb. 22-27, 2022

51

42

7

0

Independent

Oct. 21-24, 2013

49

51

0

0

Independent

Mar. 20-23, 2014

38

53

9

1

Independent

Sept. 11-14, 2014

45

53

1

1

Independent

Jan. 16-20, 2019

68

28

3

0

Independent

April 3-7, 2019

64

28

4

4

Independent

Feb. 22-27, 2022

60

28

11

1

Democrat

Oct. 21-24, 2013

53

41

5

1

Democrat

Mar. 20-23, 2014

55

39

5

1

Democrat

Sept. 11-14, 2014

61

37

3

0

Democrat

Jan. 16-20, 2019

72

19

8

1

Democrat

April 3-7, 2019

76

17

6

0

Democrat

Feb. 22-27, 2022

75

19

5

1

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. This survey interviewed 802 registered Wisconsin voters by landline or cell phone Feb. 22-27, 2022. The margin of error is +/-3.8 percentage points for the full sample.

Primary-vote choices have a sample size of 363 for the Republican primary and 354 for the Democratic primary, with margins of error of +/-5.8 and +/-5.7 for the Republican and Democratic primaries respectively. Republican primary voters include Republicans and independents who lean Republican plus independents who do not lean to either party but who say they will vote in the Republican primary; similarly for “Democratic primary voters.”

Some issue items were asked of half the sample. Those on Form A were asked of 400 and have a margin of error of +/-5.5 percentage points. Form B items were asked of 402 and have a margin of error of +/-5.4 percentage points.

Items asked of half-samples included on Form A concern for inflation, unemployment, illegal immigration, and coronavirus, plus opinion of school and business closures in 2020. Form B items included marijuana legalization, school curriculum, vouchers, whether schools had gotten better or worse, and whether school standards are too high or not high enough.

Favorability to some primary candidates was also asked of half the sample. These candidates were Battino, Olikara, Murphy, Lee, Lewis, Peckarsky, Rumbaugh and Williams. These items have a sample size of 400 or 402 cases and a margin of error of +/-5.5 percentage points.

The partisan makeup of the sample, including those who lean to a party, is 44% Republican, 43% Democratic, and 13% independent. The partisan makeup of the sample, excluding those who lean to a party, is 27% Republican, 25% Democratic, and 47% independent.

Since January 2020, the long-term partisan balance, including those who lean to a party, in the Marquette poll has been 45% Republican and 44 % Democratic, with 9% independent. Partisanship exuding those who lean has been 29% Republican and 28 % Democratic, with 41% independent.

The entire questionnaire, methodology statement, full results and breakdowns by demographic groups are available at law.marquette.edu/poll/results-and-data.


About Kevin Conway

Kevin Conway

Kevin is the associate director for university communication in the Office of University Relations. Contact Kevin at (414) 288-4745 or kevin.m.conway@marquette.edu