New York is in a State of Decline.
Despite the nation’s longest economic expansion, the Empire State is actually losing population, an analysis of US Census data released Monday reveals.
The total state population as of mid-2019 was 19,453,561 — a drop of 76,790, or 0.4 percent, from the previous year, according to the study by the Empire Center for Public Policy.
New York was one of only 10 states to suffer a total population decline in 2018-19 — its fourth consecutive annual decrease after five years of growth, and the largest population drop of any state.
Only West Virginia, Alaska and Illinois saw their populations fall at a faster percentage clip.
“You’d think with a strong economy, New York wouldn’t be losing population,” said the Empire Center’s E.J. McMahon, author of the report.
He surmised that the high cost of living may be catching up with the Big Apple region, historically a magnet for newcomers that offset population losses in economically struggling upstate.
Not anymore.
New York’s population has been stagnant over the past decade, with a modest 75,459 increase in residents since 2010, a growth rate of just 0.4 percent, ranking 46th-lowest out of 50 states.
Stagnant growth has real consequences.
The state will likely lose at least one and possibly two congressional seats — and political clout — after the next official decennial census count because of its failure to grow compared to other states.
By comparison, the total estimated US population of 328,239,523 was up about 1.6 million over the 2018 total. Since 2010, the national population has increased by 19,493,985, or 6.3 percent — nearly 16 times the New York rate.
New York, continuing a decades-long trend, was a net exporter of residents to other states — with 180,649 more residents moving out than moving in from other states over the previous 12 months.
New York’s net domestic migration loss of 1,379,210 residents to other states since 2010 was the largest of any state in absolute terms, and second only to Alaska as a percentage of population at the start of the decade, the Empire Center analysis found.
A large influx of foreign immigrants — coupled with natural increase of births over deaths — typically offset New York’s domestic migration exodus.
But foreign immigration has also plummeted and even the NYC region’s population growth is flat, McMahon said.
New York gained only 45,753 foreign immigrants over the previous year — the lowest annual immigrant total since 2010, and the second-lowest in at least 58 years amid a fierce national debate over foreign immigration, the study found.
Staten Island Republican Councilman Joe Borelli said immigrants as well as New York natives are exiting or bypassing New York because it’s become unaffordable.
“The cost of living in New York — the high taxes, regulations and housing costs — are making it untenable to live the American dream here,” said Borelli, who wistfully noted how many high school chums have moved out of New York.
“It’s hard to see how this changes with progressive Democrats entrenched in government.”
McMahon of the Empire Center said that even neighboring New Jersey — hardly a low-cost state — is a bargain compared to New York.
“For all of New Jersey’s problems, it’s still less expensive to live there than in New York City or the NYC suburbs,” he said.
The Empire Center also recently issued a report showing a steep enrollment decline in New York’s public schools, with the fewest number of students recorded in classrooms in 30 years.
Meanwhile, the census data show a drop overall in international migration during President Trump’s term.
Nationally, foreign migration to the US fell to 595,348 between 2018 and 2019 — nearly half the growth rate of 1,046,709 in 2016, the high point for the decade — the US Census Bureau reported Monday.
Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s office fired back, claiming that Trump and the GOP were responsible for New York’s loss of residents.
“These right-wing cheerleaders fail to mention that it was the Washington Republicans’ asinine SALT cap who raised taxes on New Yorkers at this time — not the state,” said Cuomo senior adviser Richard Azzopardi.
“Under this [Cuomo] administration, middle-class taxes were cut to historic lows, business taxes were lowered, manufacturing taxes were eliminated, property taxes were permanently capped, unemployment was cut in half and a record number of private-sector jobs were created.”